Pin color represents price changes over time: January, 2008 to current.
By Paul Solman
Yikes. Or, perhaps, yipes. The Case-Shiller index for the first quarter of 2011 is out this morning and here’s how Bloomberg puts it: “Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Fall to 8-Year Low.”
David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices, which puts out Case-Shiller, went into greater detail:
“This month’s report is marked by the confirmation of a double-dip in home prices across much of the nation.”
The dreaded “double-dip.” One can only hope it’s restricted to the housing market. Lower housing prices mean even less wealth for most Americans, which in turn means less money to spend, which in turn… well, you get the picture.
All of the indices – national, 20-City Composite and 12 metropolitan areas – “hit new lows,” writes Blitzer.
“The National Index fell 4.2% over the first quarter alone, and is down 5.1% compared to its year-ago level. Home prices continue on their downward spiral with no relief in sight.”
“Since December 2010, we have found an increasing number of markets posting new lows. In March 2011, 12 cities - Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland (OR) and Tampa - fell to their lowest levels as measured by the current housing cycle. Washington D.C. was the only MSA displaying positive trends with an annual growth rate of +4.3% and a 1.1% increase from its February level.
“The rebound in prices seen in 2009 and 2010 was largely due to the first-time home buyers tax credit. Excluding the results of that policy, there has been no recovery or even stabilization in home prices during or after the recent recession. Further, while last year saw signs of an economic recovery, the most recent data do not point to renewed gains.”
To accompany the Case-Shiller index, we introduce a new map today here on Making Sen$e. You can see how home prices have changed in various cities in recent years, right up to the latest data. Sobering stuff.
Click on any of the markers to see data we’ve compiled from the index for 20 metropolitan areas, 2008 to now. You can see the three-month average for each month by scrolling down, as well as the change over time. The number reflects how house prices have changed: as a reference, a value of 100 represents January, 2000 price levels.
As for today’s numbers, which coincided with the latest consumer confidence index hitting a six-month low, any glimmers of hope? Well, the Dow is up at 4 p.m., more than 100 points, as I write this. That adds some wealth to Americans invested in stocks. It also suggests that maybe the U.S. stock market, and especially the Dow, dominated as it is by big companies that sell so much abroad, reflects the global economy more than it does what’s happening here at home.